Two losses early in the year have LSU looking for answers, but Saturday’s homecoming game against Mississippi State looks better for the Tigers than the records show.

LSU is 4-2 overall and 1-2 in the SEC and has slipped to No. 22 in the AP poll, while Mississippi State is 4-1, 2-1 in the SEC and ranked No. 16. Looking deeper than just their record, LSU’s last loss was a 35-34 overtime defeat at Kentucky, and the other came within eight points at Ole Miss. Those are extremely close losses, both on the road. Many of the LSU issues come from inconsistency in high pressure moments.

The matchup favors LSU’s offense

Mississippi State’s season runs through sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor, who has been in the Heisman conversation. Even his supporters have called the Bulldogs’ defense below average, which means Taylor has to keep scoring in order to win. LSU showed what its offense can do when it’s clicking in a 51-10 Week 1 win over Clemson. Against a defense that looks vulnerable, the LSU offense should be able to flourish at home. According to ESPN analytics, LSU is favored to beat Mississippi State with a 76.8% chance.

Familiar Faces

Lane Kiffin and Jeff Lebby worked together for two seasons at Ole Miss in 2020-2021 and then faced each other in the 2024 and 2025 Egg Bowls. Kiffin’s offense will also go against defensive coordinator Zach Arnett, so there’s some familiarity about how Mississippi State will want to play.

Mississippi State is coming off a bye and will arrive rested. The Bulldogs’ last game was a loss to Alabama, and a rested team still has to handle a packed-out Tiger Stadium. LSU also knows what it needs to fix from last week and the Tigers are 4-0 at home this season. Kiffin said this week that the team has been too up and down in all phases.

Mississippi State has the better record and the better quarterback story, but LSU has the home field advantage and the more explosive offense. It also has a coach who has seen this opponent up close and a team motivated to bounce back. If the Tigers play cleaner football, they should be able to come out with the win. The biggest threat is Taylor, who can beat LSU by himself if the defense lets him.

— Eric Palmer, TigerSources